posted on February 27th 2017 in Austin CFP Team Posts with 0 Comments /

This post is a preview of WorthPointe’s e-book Evidence-Based Investing: Separating Fact From Fiction, written by Certified Financial Planner™ Scott O’Brien. In Evidence-Based Investing, Scott discusses the myths and misinformation that most often slow or halt our financial goals. Get your complimentary copy of Evidence-Based Investing here.

Just because a certain money manager or mutual fund beats the market for a few years, you shouldn’t jump to the conclusion that it was due to being smarter or more skilled. Most likely, it was dumb luck.

The odds of beating a benchmark in any one year are 50%. Then the odds of beating the benchmark three years in a row is the same as flipping a coin and getting heads three times in a row — an occurrence that is expected 12% of the time.

So with thousands of fund managers in the investment field, shouldn’t we expect 12% of them to beat their benchmark for three years in a row simply by random chance? Since this is statistically likely, why would you place any predictive value on the likelihood that the managers in the top 12% will continue to outperform? You shouldn’t.

Mark Carhart did a study that tracked fund performances back to 1962. He concluded that performers in the top 10 percent in any one year are more likely to fall to the bottom 10 percent than to repeat in the top 10 percent.

CNBC often trots out the latest manager who has beaten the market averages, anoints them as the latest flavor of the month and implies they are someone we should listen to for investment advice for the next 10 minutes.

Since there is no evidence of persistency of performance in fund returns beyond what could be randomly expected, a logical person must not attribute a particular fund’s outperformance to skill instead of luck.
Read the rest in Evidence-Based Investing. Get Your Complete Copy of the Book Now.

about the author: Scott W. O'Brien CFP®

scottScott W. O’Brien CFP® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER professional who serves clients by coordinating their financial lives and assisting them in making smart financial decisions within the areas of investments, retirement planning, insurance strategies, tax minimization, and estate planning.

Scott was honored as the winner of the 2015 Five Star Professional Wealth Manager for Austin, San Antonio and the Central Texas region. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, US News & World Report, MainStreet.com and Investopedia.

Learn more and/or Contact Scott

Continue Reading

Other articles filed under Austin CFP Team Posts

The Mindfulness of Being Financially Successful

September 18, 2017 - [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO5Gj-N9yg4&t=5s[/embed] “Mindfulness doesn’t do any good unless there’s discipline attached to it.” We became financial advisors first and foremost to provide our clients with fulfilled, happy lives. Austin Partner Morgan H. Smith discusses the important role that mindfulness plays in...
Continue Reading

Hurricane Harvey Retirement Plan Loan Relief

September 8, 2017 - The IRS has just announced some relief for certain verification procedures for those needing to take hardship loans and distributions from their qualified retirement plans due to Hurricane Harvey. In IRS Announcement 2017-11, the IRS lays out the rationale and...
Continue Reading

The Morgan Report 2017 Q2 Review: Passing Inspection

July 17, 2017 - I’m always surprised where my inspiration comes from for my quarterly reviews. This quarter it comes from a photo of my 3-year-old son getting his first official military salute from Vice Admiral Mike Shoemaker, who was the Grand Marshall for...
Continue Reading

WorthPointe Featured on Best Austin Financial Planners List

May 15, 2017 - The Austin Business Journal recently featured WorthPointe on their list of top Financial Planning Firms in the Austin area that they released earlier this month. The 2017 list of financial planning firms was open to comprehensive financial planners with offices...
Continue Reading

Essentials of Selling Your Business (and Designing Your Post-Sale Life)

May 8, 2017 - You never have so much success, money, or experience that you can’t go broke. Develop a plan for post-sale success prior to the sale of your business. WorthPointe Partner Morgan H. Smith, Jr., IMBA, CFP® was invited by the Austin...
Continue Reading

Return to Blog Home