posted on October 4th 2013 in Austin CFP Team Posts & Your Financial Advisor with 0 Comments /

Scott W. O’Brien, Director of Wealth Management

According to Morningstar, in May the average bond fund dropped in value by nearly 7% when interest rates spiked. This followed much speculation about the possibility and timing of when the Federal Reserve may end their bond-purchasing program. The timing is important, as this program and the quantitative easing programs before it have been holding interest rates down in an effort to stimulate the economy.

The investment philosophy at WorthPointe Wealth Management is to hold fixed income assets (bonds) that are shorter term and higher quality. By short term, we mean 5 years or less in duration, which is a measurement of interest rate risk.

Interest rate risk can be demonstrated as follows: If a bond portfolio has an average duration of 3 years and interest rates rise by 1%, its principal value will drop by 3%–the duration multiplied by the interest rate change. It works in the opposite direction as well; if interest rates were to drop by 1%, the principal value would rise.

It might be helpful to view this discussion by visualizing a teeter-totter or seesaw.

2011_03_11-Interest-Rates-vs-Value copy

Rates go up, principal goes down. Rates go down, principal goes up.

Since interest rates have generally been on the decline for the last 30 years, the total return on bonds has been quite strong. Investors reaped the interest from them, and saw the value of their bond portfolio rise.

With interest rates now at near-historical lows, this scenario is likely to change. There simply isn’t much room for rates to go down. Following the reversion to the mean concept (things return to their averages over time), eventually rates will rise again.

Sometimes, we get questions about our bond portfolios and why we have them at all if we aren’t getting much interest and the risk of rising interest rates may harm the principal value.

We hold bonds for the downside protection in case of stock market declines. Bond price movements (especially high-quality short-term bonds) typically have an inverse relationship to stock market movements. We saw this in 2008 when during the financial panic shorter-term U.S. Treasury securities prices rose dramatically, offsetting some of the losses in the stock portion of portfolios.

While struggling with this low interest rate environment, we have been explaining to our clients that we are resisting the temptation to chase higher yields by buying longer-term bonds or lower-quality higher-risk bonds. It just isn’t worth the risk, as we saw last month when interest rates rose again.

This chart from Dimensional Fund Advisors shows why having longer-term maturities is not worth the risk. You will note that after the 5-year mark, while the interest rates do rise a little, the volatility as measured by standard deviation dramatically spikes.

bond blog a copy

A different chart illustrates the effect credit quality has on the volatility (the blue line) as measured by standard deviation. Similar to the previous chart, the interest received (gold line) on bonds increases slightly as the quality decreases, but at the point that the bonds reach less than investment grade (BBB), the volatility spikes dramatically.

bond blog b copy

 

Based on statistics from the end of September, our clients’ bond portfolios have an average duration of less than 2 1/4 years and we use only funds that invest in high- quality investment-grade bonds.

When you have a portfolio that owns bonds that have 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year maturities, if (when) rates start going up, you will soon have some of the bonds (the 1- year bonds) maturing. The proceeds from the maturing bonds can be invested in the higher interest rate environment. Thus, as rates rise over time, your portfolio will have bonds maturing and reinvesting at the higher rates.

This strategy decreases the volatility of the bond portfolio and takes advantage of rising rates while holding this asset class for downside protection for the overall portfolio.

about the author: Scott W. O'Brien CFP®, EA

scottScott W. O’Brien CFP® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER professional who serves clients by coordinating their financial lives and assisting them in making smart financial decisions within the areas of investments, retirement planning, insurance strategies, tax minimization, and estate planning.

Scott was honored as the winner of the 2015 Five Star Professional Wealth Manager for Austin, San Antonio and the Central Texas region. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, US News & World Report, MainStreet.com and Investopedia.

Learn more and/or Contact Scott

Continue Reading

Other articles filed under Austin CFP Team Posts

The Morgan Report Q2 2018 Review: 6 Tips to Take Care of Aging Parents and Loved Ones

July 13, 2018 - Are there many important things to be done when a parent is declining in health that you don’t read about too often? Most definitely — and I’d like to share some lessons learned that might help those of you who...
Continue Reading

Robo Financial Advice: Is the discount worth the risk?

May 23, 2018 - Investing seems like it should be straightforward: buy when stock is low, sell when its high. Reap the profit. Makes sense especially when you consider the big gains demonstrated by the stock market over the past couple of years. Big...
Continue Reading

The Morgan Report Q1 2018: Volatility vs. Security

April 17, 2018 - People want a sense of security — emotionally, physically and financially. The truth of life is that we try to manage a tightrope walk between chaos and order. If somehow we can incrementally achieve some order in a life that...
Continue Reading

What Does Tech Have To Do With Your Financial Peace Of Mind?

February 22, 2018 - [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6BWDxM2edc[/embed] WorthPointe works on your schedule. Austin Financial Advisor Morgan Smith explains how he uses his tech tools to meets clients where they’re at, even if they’re laying on a beach in Bali.
Continue Reading

What Does Tax Reform Mean for You?

February 13, 2018 - As a financial planner, I’ve certainly been getting my share of questions about the recently passed tax reform. In this article, I’ll address some of the most common concerns I’m hearing from clients, but how the changes in the tax...
Continue Reading

Return to Blog Home