posted on November 13th 2015 in Market Commentary with 0 Comments /

Market Commentary 

Let’s not forget that the biggest determinate of the success of bullish strategies (buying stocks, ETFs, mutual funds) is the market itself. Most things trend with the market. Markets always move around — but a series of higher highs and higher lows is a sign of a strong trend. #1 shows us the last market high set back in May. Since then, several rallies have failed to break into higher ground, while lows have managed to be lower. This increases the probabilities that the market may be “topping,” or may just be gearing up to take an extended breather. No, that’s not a forecast, just a probability. This is where having a plan and making sure you are on it is important — so you can weather the storms and be positioned well after them.

Notice next that the November high at #3 was only able to get back up to the March high, not the May, June/July, or July/Aug highs. The bulls continue to charge ahead, but each time, they are falling a little shorter. At #4, we saw the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) cross below the 200-day SMA. Both of these are indicators of trend. Having both of them rising together is a good sign. Having the shorter cross below the longer is not a good sign, as it indicates the trend may be weakening. While the 50 has recovered some (#6), the 200 has flattened. No doubt the market had hoped to find some support at the 2039 level, but it has now blown through that level twice in August and now in November. We may hope to find some degree of support at around 2015 (#5), but there is no indication so far that it would be strong support.

 

Strategy Commentary  

Always remember to keep a long-term view and don’t build emotions in day-to-day activity. Lots of analysis is done to build portfolios with the characteristics we desire. Always remember that in between buy and sell is simply hold.

about the author: WorthPointe Wealth Management Team

WorthPointe is a fee only financial planning firm with offices in Austin, San Diego and Dallas / Fort Worth. Our advisors are credentialed, experienced and owners. Worthpointe provides advanced financial planning, investment consulting, tax planning, asset protection and insurance, estate planning, or charitable giving support.

Our team of CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER professionals has been quoted or published in The Wall Street Journal, San Diego Union Tribune, Financial Planning, Smart Money, Financial Advisor, Boomer Market Advisor, MSN Money, Wealth and Retirement Planner, thestreet.com, Bloomberg Wealth Manager, Del Mar Times, Money Magazine, MorningstarAdvisor.com and much much more.

Learn more about our team and/or Contact Us

Continue Reading

Other articles filed under Market Commentary

Some Rational Thoughts

March 13, 2020 - You've seen the news and we have, too. In fact, we have a careful eye on everything going down - and up. We've been hearing from many of you about your concerns.  The market is clearly responding to new information...
Continue Reading

What You Need to Know about the SECURE Act

February 17, 2020 - The SECURE (Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement) Act became law during the last few weeks of 2019 and became effective on January 1. This measure, which affects anyone who has an IRA, includes the following significant changes: RMDs...
Continue Reading

VFO Hub offers access to best-in-class tax specialists

October 21, 2019 - What does it take to be able to help clients gain financial peace of mind? To me, it requires a great team of Certified Financial Planner™ professionals that has access to cutting-edge technology and best-in-class resources. As a new member...
Continue Reading

The Randomness of Global Equity Returns

July 17, 2019 - Investment opportunities exist all around the globe   Across more than 40 countries, there are over 15,000 publicly traded companies. If you listen to the news, however, some countries may seem like better places to invest than others based on how...
Continue Reading

Getting to the Point of a Point

March 22, 2019 - A quick online search for “Dow rallies 500 points” yields a cascade of news stories with similar titles, as does a similar search for “Dow drops 500 points.” These types of headlines may make little sense to some investors, given...
Continue Reading

Return to Blog Home